The Time to Step Back from the Brink in the Middle East is Now

October 1 marked a turning point in the fast-moving conflict in the Middle East. Ballistic missiles rained down on Israel sent by Iran, hitting many of their intended targets. This came amid Israel’s invasion of Lebanon following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Meanwhile, a deadly shooting in the streets of Jaffa left at least eight dead. All this while Gaza burns. 

The skies of the Middle East are bright orange, and the ground is soaked in the blood of those who have perished.

Where and when did it start? There can be no denying that the catalyst for the current conflict was the October 7 operation by Hamas, an unconscionable terrorist attack that gave Israel every right to respond. 

What followed has brought death and destruction for all, in a collective effort by paramilitary groups Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi, and the Houthis, and the states of Israel and Iran. And the United States, as the most powerful force in the region, has overseen it all through action and inaction—the feckless superpower. 

Enough is enough. 

The time to step back from the brink in the Middle East is now. 

It could be argued that the time to step back was before it started, on October 6, 2023. Or we could go back further to June 5, 1967. Perhaps it was on October 8 of last year when Hezbollah fired its first rockets at Israel. Or on October 27, when Israel launched a full ground incursion into Gaza. Was it when the number of overall dead crossed 10,000? Or when the Houthis regionalized the conflict?

Whatever time it has been before, we are where we are today. The convergence of moral, humanitarian, and geopolitical imperatives has reached a deafening crescendo. Each day further into the fog of war will only bring more despair.  

Those holding power in Israel will seek, with hubris, complete victory. The obliteration of every Hamas element in Gaza. The rooting out of every Hezbollah member in Lebanon. The decapitation of the Iranian regime. In the 2000s, such policies were also pursued to induce, as then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice put it, “the birth pangs of a new Middle East.” 

To say it didn’t work is an understatement. The decapitation of Saddam Hussein, the rooting out of every Baathist in Iraq, and the obliteration of the Taliban in Afghanistan spectacularly backfired in ways we could never have even imagined.

From the rise of ISIS to the Taliban resurgence, the United States ushered in backwardness on the backs of the millions of victims of the stillborn new order. The overwhelming force doctrine of Colin Powell and the shock and awe of Donald Rumsfeld took the region nowhere in the end. Nothing lasting or good can emerge from the chaos of assassination and obliteration alone. 

There is no question that Israel has demonstrated great power and overwhelming force over the past two months. Yet, absent humility and responsible statecraft, it will lose all it could have gained. Domination by death is not a long-term vision. Without the notion of a grand peace that creates regional parity and a pathway for a Palestinian state, there will be no resolution. The path of complete victory that the government of Israel is pursuing has only two possible outcomes – forever war or genocide. We will rapidly progress towards both if we do nothing.

In the days ahead, each escalation will be met by counter-escalation, even if rudimentary. Temporary victories will give way to messy entanglements. Vanquished enemies will give rise to new foes, if not today, tomorrow. The collapse of countries and their infrastructure and health systems will result in untold humanitarian catastrophes. It does not need to lead to World War III to be worth preventing. 

The horizon to prevent this is fleeting; once gone, it will be a point of no return. It is incumbent on all others, particularly the United States, to pull the parties back and provide an overarching – and alternative – way forward. There will be no perfect resolution, Israel’s force superiority will be protected, and Hamas and Hezbollah will never return to power. Those will be the terms, even if some may find them unpalatable.

Yet, all-out war can be prevented, a path to a better future can be achieved, and we can end the madness. 

It is time to step back from the brink in the Middle East. Now.